But I wouldn't be shocked if the Republicans didn't lose any seats at all. Republican candidates generally outperform polls, for a variety of reasons, and they have one ace in the hole: they get to run against Democrats. I don't detect any great ground swell in the electorate for a return to Democratic rule.
The main reason I'm not getting excited by opinion polls right now is that they reflect the popularity of George W. Bush. But someone needs to let the Democrats know that he's not their opponent and never will be again. They've lost every election they're going to lose to him. They will never beat him again in an election. I think the expression is "Move On." The war against Bush is over. They're a bit like old British army generals in 1914, who couldn't quite get used to the notion that they were supposed to be fighting Germans this time, not Russians or the French.